Red Zone conversion rate: What a difference a year makes

After last season, I authored a post titled "Red Zone = Danger Zone in 2005" (June 1, 2006). Last season, Michigan's offense only converted 79.3% of its red zone scoring opportunities. In 2006, Michigan's offense improved its red zone scoring conversion rate by almost ten percentage points. This season the Wolverines scored on 42-47 red zone opportunities for an 89% conversion rate. Of those 42 scores, twenty-eight were touchdowns and the other fourteen were field goals.

The 2006 defense also improved by about ten percentage points. In 2005, the Michigan defense allowed opponents in the red zone to score 86.5% of the time. In 2006, the defense was stingier by about 10 percentage points as opponents only converted 19-25 (76%) red zone opportunities. In 2006, the Red Zone was not the Danger Zone. This year it was more like the Promised Land. Go Blue!

Red Zone Offense still perfect after 3 games

Michigan's Red Zone Offense was a perfect 4-4 (2 touchdowns, 2 field goals) against Notre Dame. The offense maintained its perfect 100% mark in the Red Zone on the season (12-12 with 8 touchdowns and 4 field goals). Converting in the red zone was not a key to victory in the win over Notre Dame so I post this more as an interesting aside than as an explanation for the win. Nevertheless, it is good to see that the Wolverines were able to continue to convert their opportunities into points. Go Blue!

Red Zone Offense

Michigan was a perfect 5-5 in the Red Zone vs. CMU keeping intact its 100% mark for the season. Over the course of the first two games, Michigan is a combined 8-8 on Red Zone scoring opportunities. Against Vanderbilt, Michigan scored 2 touchdowns and a field goal on its Red Zone opportunities. Against CMU, Michigan scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on its Red Zone opportunities. This is an indication that the offense is capitalizing on its chances. Go Blue!

Red Zone = Danger Zone in 2005

The Red Zone. I don't know how long this term has been around but it seems to have gained widespread popularity in the past 10-15 years. The Red Zone is defined as having the ball inside the opponent's 20 yard line. Last year, the Red Zone was the Danger Zone for U-M on both sides of the ball. On offense, Michigan ranked an embarrasing eighth place in the Big Ten in Red Zone scoring percentage at 79.3 percent. Defensively, U of M performed even worse. The Wolverines finished 10th in the Big Ten in Red Zone scoring defense at 86.5 percent last season.

For the offense, in 2005, these stats mean it was unable to score 20% of the time it had the ball as far as the opponent's twenty yard-line. Coming away with no points that often when the ball is in scoring position can mean the difference between winning and losing in a close game. Oh wait, that's right, we lost 4 games last season by 4 points or less. Blown scoring opportunities will come back to haunt a team in close games and it happened repeatedly to last year's team. The Wolverines couldn't cash in on scoring opportunities early in games and suffered for it late.

As for the defense, once the opponent got into the Red Zone they were money to come away with SOME points as the opponents scored at an 86.5% rate last season once they reached the Red Zone. Michigan has long been known for a "bend-but-don't-break" defense but last year there was more breaking than bending. New Defensive Coordinator Ron English will have to find a way to have the "D" lock it down more often once the opponents get into the Red Zone. Otherwise, U of M might find themselves on the wrong end of some more close games in 2006.